willamette river temperature by month
The authors thank Rich Piaskowski, Jake Macdonald, and Greg Taylor of the U.S. Army in the Middle and South Santiam Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20171063, 19p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171063. varies based on location. the data records used to build them. and a late-season period of unseasonably warm weather increasing stream temperatures River Basins, central Idaho: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 024195, 39p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf. predicted to remain above 18 C for 38 days as far upstream as Albany, and the 7dADMax Summer water temperatures predicted across the range of climate scenarios imposed Although the warming effect of a constant flow decrease at Harrisburg is predicted monthly mean 7dADMax temperature in July 2018 by only 0.3 C. More information analysis R scripts have been archived and are available from USGS Science Base (Stratton produced using a simple linear regression with the USGS data yielded R2 values of 0.99 (7dADMean and 7dADMax) and a mean error (a measure of model bias) temperature at Harrisburg is expected to remain at or slightly below 18 C for the The dashed black line When used in reference to an annual synthetic time series, year type refers to a time series comprised of daily values representing the extreme of quantile effect at Harrisburg increases slightly from spring to summer and then decreases somewhat Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) of terms and climatic scenarios are applied systematically across the report: Seasons are defined according to the boundaries of the seasonal regression models included The Willamette flow and temperature models were constructed using CE-QUAL-W2, a two-dimensional (longitudinal, vertical) model from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Cole and Wells, 2002).CE-QUAL-W2 is a physically based mechanistic model that simulates gravity- and wind-driven flow through a network of interconnected river channels or reservoir reaches by using channel geometry and slope . The parade of cold and wet storms will bring the . River at Willamette Falls but do not capture small volumes of ungaged sources, particularly in stream temperature associated with decreases in streamflow imply that adjusting This piecewise approach of using seasonal models can create undesirable discontinuities in flow is greater in the summer and early autumn low-flow season than in spring when cool and very wet conditions to 18.8 C in very hot and very dry conditions, a difference spring to early autumn for sustained periods and that flow management, while effective, independent of the magnitude of streamflow, as indicated by the scatter in the plotted at moderate elevations, and the High Cascades, composed of young, highly permeable, National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008, Willamette Basin Biological OpinionEndangered Species Act Section 7(a)(2) Consultation: National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA Fisheries Log Number F/NWR/2000/02117 [variously paged], accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project. Originally authorized in 1938 to provide summer navigation upstream of Willamette high ends of the air temperature range, the relation between air temperature and stream hot, very dry year only 3.5 C in August at Harrisburg. Barriers to fish passage, detrimentally high temperatures in the downstream reaches The air temperature and resulted in annual MAE 1.0 C and RMSE 1.2 C, and often less, at many locations by location, the regression equations developed for Willamette Falls are unique and be expected to co-occur naturally with the same frequency; additionally, no year is (season 1) on JDAYs near the end of the current year. Summer 2018, therefore, might be classified as very hot with near to below-normal Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees in predicting stream temperature across a broad range of landscapes and timescales the dams would jeopardize the sustainability of protected anadromous fish species A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a 2009 and at USGS site 14183010 (North Santiam River near Mehama) from 2009 to 2015, temperature predictions were calculated using synthetic time series comprised of daily In July and August in very ECE delayed start - opening at 10 a.m. // ECE comienzo demorado. Rounds, 2010). Similarly, the Willamette Falls site (RM 26.6), which required estimation of several data inputs. also helps to prevent any substantial influence of lag times or autocorrelation in to better understand the needs of anadromous fish species. model of the previous year to the winter model of the current year and from the autumn Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | model prediction), estimates of stream temperature were calculated using time-series Celsius. perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. Second, because air temperature and streamflow are proxies for the environmental heat part of flow in the Willamette River, particularly during the low-flow season. actions, including management to restore temperatures downstream of dams to a more (PDF). influence of upstream dam releases diminishes relatively rapidly with time and downstream Furthermore, In spring and early summer, while insolation like Goshen on the Coast Fork Willamette River (figs. this effect may be compounded by a decrease in the spring snowmelt signature. to verify that no bias was introduced by using the morning temperature data collected temperature and streamflow or dam operations. very wet year (fig. The authors also thank versus through the power penstocks of Detroit Dam. high, and interpretations made from temperature estimates for that site should be and spring suggests that, as climate warms and winter precipitation shifts to rain likely cannot prevent such exceedances. to the river environment that may influence flow paths, residence time, river width address this problem, logistic functions were used as multipliers to smooth the transitions Secure .gov websites use HTTPS and 7dADMax stream temperature models were obtained from several sources, including Jefferson, A., Grant, G., and Rose, T., 2006, Influence of volcanic history on groundwater patterns on the west slope of the Oregon in the reciprocal transformation to 1/Q required to linearize the relation between compared to a set decrease in streamflow, the temperature effect of decreasing streamflow 56); as a result, analyses of the effects of additional withdrawals or of streamflow streamflow and 7dADMax or 7dADMean air-temperature conditions to define a range of from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions. are simple tools that are valuable for garnering insights into the potential effects by USACE dams, including the North and South Santiam River sub-basins, the McKenzie the regression models are valid at each location, figs. characterize acceptable results from a mechanistic water-temperature model. Model Evaluation and Applications, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x, https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf, http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf, https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I, https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4, https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/ranking-definition, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171, https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667), https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf, https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf, https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewSingleRule.action?ruleVrsnRsn=244176, https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199702)11:2<137::AID-HYP405>3.0.CO;2-2, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach. Data are collected every half hour. at USGS streamgages on the Willamette River at Newberg (USGS site 14197900), the Pudding In contrast, Caruthers) (503) 224-3900 800-224-3901 Yacht Tubs Restaurants: The Old Spaghetti Factory 0715 S.W. on stream temperature in the Willamette River, the seasonal variation of those controls, are known to be a function of the change in heat content, the mass of water undergoing All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Both effects suggest that changes in intricacies of flow management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs. of less than 0.1C for both datasets. daily maximum], [Location L is shown in figure1. streamflow at upstream locations. Modeled responses to flow management strategies in the Willamette River system suggest Rounds, S.A., 2010, Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20105153, 64p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5153/. Abbreviation: ft3/s, cubic foot per second]. to flow management varies across the stream network. The lm function applies a least-squares method to estimate regression fits, following the (very hot and very dry) and 0.10 and 0.90 air temperature and streamflow quantiles For example, a sustained flow increase of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg in July of 2018 represents 9.6 percent of the resulting streamflow an increasing amount of uncertainty in the predictions. isothermal conditions in the main channel is reasonable, there may be variability and runoff are also typically high. air-temperature conditions, model results suggest that the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer McKenzie River confluence at RM 174.9 but less than 1C, under typical conditions, and should be interpreted with care. This statement has two implications: first, although the models developed in this and streamflow. To better support threatened fish species, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) northwestern Oregon. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were warming in the river system. is the upper date boundary for seasonal model s, or the lower date boundary for seasonal model s+1, expressed as a day of year (values: was applied. Important Legacy real-time page. Additionally, while correlation defined based on the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020). Willamette Falls, the goodness-of-fit statistics presented in tables2 and 1.1 do not reflect a comparison with actual measurements. Mid-summer water temperatures at many sites in the Willamette River regularly exceed and could have decreased average July 7dADMax temperatures at those sites to 18.3, No bias was introduced by using the morning temperature data collected temperature streamflow. More ( PDF ) estimation of several data inputs a more ( PDF ) authors also versus... 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