roger altman house

roger altman house

But part of our efforts were to get the Japanese to agree to certain pump-priming measures at home to lift domestic demand, increase the Japanese demand for imports, and better balance the current account relationship. They especially resented the role that Hillary played. We sat there, the two of us, watching it on television, mostly in silence. So in the early period, Id have to go back and look at when the President laid the legislation forward, but I want to say it was first of March or something like that. Who was the New York group that helped him with fundraising and maybe also with policy? You say you knew Rubin well, but did you have a sense that in the other places where economic policy-making is made there was ever any tension over this kind of an arrangement? I do hope as we proceed that you will take the time to give us your continuing perceptions of Bentsen because unfortunately he is somebody we had approached about doing an interview and. He had just made it through this cliffhanging vote on which the administrations credibility for the next several years, I think, would largely depend, and it depends on the support of overwhelming shares of Democrats in the House and the Senate to get through. Then the President spoke to Kerrey. There were some folks from the White House Press Secretarys office who were in it. Its always a mistake to challenge the Federal Reserve. Was there a contrasting case in your experience in the Clinton administration where support was received both sides of the aisle and soughtwas it sought in the budget case? But in retrospect he basically decided in his simple-minded way that he was going to grind the Soviet Union right into the dust, and he did. The Office of Government Ethics came to its conclusion and the Treasury Inspector General as you know is an independent party and came to the same conclusions, the White House counsel came to the same conclusion. I dont recall precisely, but Im sure Im right that Clintons standing in the polls was ebbing. Most of us cant name the last President who did balance the budget. That was partly because Bentsen was a person who had never failed at anything. Those meetings were, at one level, rather riveting, but at another level they were disorganized. WebBy tlp333 @ 2008-03-23 21:45:51. The Clinton stimulus plan just was not well conceived. He did, that was the first State of the Union. The thing was televised, nonstop. Some people thought they were misguided. Roger Altman is Founder and Senior Chairman of Evercore, the most active independent investment bank in the world today. Its the biggest story in Washington, Hillary Clinton, the whole thing. As I recall, the distinctive thing about Clinton, if everyone had one courageous stand, his was on free trade. Is this a case where the political people were encouraging him to hold his ground? But anyway, in retrospect it was a very bad idea. I said I would and we went forward. So the question in part was: Are you going to really drive forward with an aggressive trade agenda for this administration or not? The bigger gamble then was, as you say, the long term, the response in the long-term credit markets, whats going to happen, and that, I take it, is where Allen Blinders. Lets face it, NAFTA has worked. There were deals being cut like crazy, deals on tomatoes, deals on Florida citrus. Carter had the famous $50 rebate, which became the object of much derision ultimately. And, of course, the ATF agents didnt know what they were going to experience and he found himself exposed to an open line of fire. Im Jim Young. Sure, sure. But its interesting to put it into perspective. Did you ever get the sense that there were some people who mystified him? I was just there to do the best job I could. Wed have these meetings; they became eventually more organized than that first set of meetings. Were you involved in that effort? We had lunch. I dont have any better thoughts on that than anybody else as to what it is about President Clinton that did that. It was not an accident that he did that. Who was the coordinator, if any, in the first follow up? Were there things about those campaigns that you had learned in preparation for this one that proved to be particularly helpful? We can all speculate. He may be forever seen in the middle. Bob Rubin. No, this was in December. Doing concerted, multilateral action of the type youre referring to is really only appropriate in the midst of a crisis. Hes pointing to the right-hand column of theWall Street Journal. We were negotiating a national agreement with the Japanese. Its rare that an issue divides the Democrats. I was asked a second time to do it on the healthcare. Here we are in June 2003 and the election as we all know is November 04, so its 16 months or so before the election, 17 months, and right now of course, the campaign among the Democratic aspirants for the nomination is hot, full-bore, and has been for several months. It was a few votes, not one vote. So there was not any anxiety or uncertainty within the core group of people involved in economic policy making about how this might fit in or. So by the time 93 was over, he was not doing well. If you go to Monticello, to his actual tombstone, then you know that he drafted his own epitaph: Governor of Virginia, founder of the University of Virginia, and author of the Declaration of Independence. For example, out of that Tokyo summit, bilateral summit, Clinton, [Kiichi] Miyazawa, or whoever the Prime Minister was at the moment, came a commitment from the Japanese to lower their current account deficit from what I think was 2.5 percent of GDP [Gross Domestic Product] to less than 2 percent. But there was a divide, so to speak, in the administration between those who felt that we should try to remake the healthcare system in this country in one fell swoop and those who felt we should pursue an incremental approach. What external factors were at work here? You were responsible for organizing the war room. Not too much, though. So in June 91 it wasnt completely unknown, it wasnt below the radar screen, but there was always a group of people who were political junkies and so forth, and Im certainly in that group, who were following it, just like theres a large number of people that are following it today, 17 months beforehand. Its mostly things I learned that dont work. I thought that was pretty funny. It was just not the way to run the railroad. I think Clinton will come out pretty well. Fifty Republicans had announced their opposition, 49 Democrats had announced their support, and Bob Kerrey was strolling around, going to the movies, which is what he was doing. They have made changes in policy, its not as though theyve stood still. But everybody felt such a part of it because they were sitting right there. So it was just a very unusual evening. Then ultimately, to give you a sense of how colorful this became, DAmato went to the Senate floor and he had a gigantic calendar the size of this wall and was marking off the days. We met for six or seven hours in the Governors mansion there. I was defeated in my effort to become student body president, as, interestingly, was Clinton. The only thing that Id like to leave this on in respect to any follow-up is this: If at any point you dont think you have a clear picture of Lloyd Bentsens role, since he is not in a position to speak for himself, feel free to call me or talk to me further about that. I was an Assistant Secretary, I had a few meetings with President Carter but not that many, so I wasnt familiar, But it was not the way you would organize, and one wonders, Mack McLarty was the Chief of Staff at the time and came out of a business. You had made your choice to support him before it was clear that he was going to wow a lot of people in New York. You didnt have to spend much time around them to see this. The contrast between Chicago, which was in an uproar at the time, and Georgetown couldnt have been more vivid. I started having to respond with a standard boilerplate response to the effect that the RTC has these procedural options and we were choosing among them. The great Presidents that you mentioned, the ones that loom large, as you said, are all crisis Presidents. And I also think that theres a certain sense of loyalty among the people that are currently serving in this administration, which is more in keeping with tradition, than the Clinton folks, or many of them I should say, brought to it. That day I knew we were headed for defeat. Did he interact comfortably with the other leaders at the summit? We still joke about that today. Anyone who does that indeed does not know what he is doing, and its the equivalent of Economic Policy 101. So essentially you would not have been involved in any of the crafting, I guess, you basically were given an agreement and it was a question of just lining up the votes at this point. I cant remember allTom Brokaw was there, Davis Weinstock, Dick Beatty, Bob Rubin, George Katz, and/or Bernie Nussbaum were there. Im very fond of her, extremely fond of her, and it was, Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. [Mary Todd] Lincoln? Of course he has those who get invited to his ranch and those who dont. The only reason I think it worked was Bob Rubin, who had the skill and the temperament to make it work. I was given an office over in the Treasury. I ran into Alice on the plane. And its not the right move to inform a Cabinet officer that his team is Mr. X, Miss Y, and Miss Z. He had good relations with certain members of Congress, and we needed that. he is one of famous Financial professional with the age 75 years old group. I should be very careful here. That was his answer. I mean, obviously, if it came down to the crunch time, youre going to have the President call. A lot of people wanted to work on Capitol Hill or think tanks or with interest groups. We touched on this at a couple of points but never directly asked you whether you thought the President. There was a widespread sense that Japan was taking advantage of the relationshipin various ways. But with regard to deficit reduction. Every time they had a new Prime Minister, we had a new set of characters. Now, it may last five or six more years, it may last 25 more years, I dont know. Did you think it was a waste of time at that point? Was this a group of people that you primarily put together, or is it bits and pieces of people that the Clintons had known. So this is the case where basically hes saying, My Presidency and this party are going to rise or fall based on whether we succeed in this or not. I would say that had probably as much to do with the onset of a partisan period as did the Andrews Air Force Base summit, but Im just playing amateur historian here. There were so many exceptions and carve-outs and so forth from the final bill that you couldnt count them. I can recall that we had a fundraiser. He served as assistant secretary of the U.S. Treasury from 1977 to 1981 before returning to Lehman, where he later became co-head of overall investment banking as well as a member of the management committee and board. The second was the evolution of the deficit estimates during that period. Youd suggested earlier that a National Economic Council wasnt anything that was a particularly major innovation. I was struck from the beginning that Clinton was blessed with a very weak field, which, for example, is not the case today. Casey came to see Bentsen and essentially asked to be reappointed and Bentsen told him, No. You can have half of it, or something to that effect. That was a bad mistake. People who liked Cuomo liked him a lot; people who didnt like him didnt like him at all, and it was about half-and-half. There was also a whole series of other investigations undertaken at the same time, one by the Office of Government Ethics, one by the Treasury Inspector General, one by the Office of White House Counsel. Oh sure, sure, well have another major Presidential uproar. How were those dealt with, the decision to make a significant concession in the bill? So there were four, Fiske and the other three, and they all came to the same conclusion, and the latter three also addressed the question of whether any of the government ethical guidelines had been violated and they all concluded no, they hadnt been. Robert Altman reflects on his college years with President William J. Clinton, 1992 election, Treasury transition, budget plans, Whitewater investigation, and North American Free Trade Agreement. During the preparation would you call that an organized group? Tweet. I take these observations, very astute observations, from people who live in this discipline. This would have been before you were in the transition office? I think the answer to your question was, Yes, it was, but the RTC was charged with the responsibility of cleaning up all S and Ls [Savings and Loans]. You dont want to start your Presidency off with a legislative defeat. Was it his personality? Altman gave That was not a high point of the Clinton Presidency. Bentsen knew Clinton wouldnt get anything else if he didnt. He didnt like Clintons stimulus program. So you can imagine sitting next to Mrs. Clinton at dinner. Bentsen managed himself with extraordinary skill. As everybody knows, ultimately there was not a single Republican vote cast for it, neither in the House nor the Senate. I wasnt there because I was an expert in international finance. But unfortunately the real show was about to begin, which I didnt realize, which was the Congressional hearings. It wasnt particularly formed before then. Did you have a lot of organizational responsibilities, or it was a going concern when you. Am I misremembering, did the President invite Mr. Greenspan, to sit in the gallery next to his wife when he delivered his economic policy. and I said, I just want to serve.Im not going to give you a speech about why I should be Secretary of the Treasury. So I guess wed like to hear the story about your involvement in both cases, focusing on your relationships with members of Congress, how the division of labor was, your relationships with the. I think John Kennedys famous line about Jefferson applies because he had nine simultaneous careers, and the Presidency was only one. And then, of course, the political people in the White House: George Stephanopoulos of course, and others in the White House. Some of thats a function of, for lack of a better word, the culture within the group of people who worked in this administration, so that there is no penalty paid, in effect, among your former colleagues for being outspoken or saying something in the press critical to the President. Today, Evercore is the fourth-largest investment banking advisory firm in the world, with more than 130 partners and over 2,100 employees. You look at the relationships he ended up having with a lot of people that he was initially close to and were central to his administration, whether its George Stephanopoulos or whoever else it may be. Because I think if you serve an administration, and you then decide to comment in some form or other, including in private, about the President and hes got these problems, or hes screwed up in this way, youre just lowering yourself. I got involved in certain aspects of preparing it, editing it, fine-tuning it, I recall that. Yes, but I dont think he thought it was going to be as tough on the Democratic side as it turned out to be. But I think the most that the Fed can be expected to do is move short rates. Within a month, I remember vividly one day, I had seven radio shows. Im not in the Senate. Were now in the pre-election period. Yes, that was bad advice. Actually, each White House that I was familiar with had its own version of what we called the National Economic Council, and if you look back for example, during the Nixon and Ford administrations, they had something quite similar. But its been shown before that if you can be to the right of center while still being seen as a true Democrat, its more effective, and Clinton did that. Then, that sent the ball in motion so to speak, in terms of that being the focus of discussion, although the senior members of that group were pretty united on the fact that we should make a real effort on the deficit. That notion took hold at that meeting. Did you get the sense that this is true? So I knew early on, but only because Lloyd Bentsen was in effect telling me. Right around that time I was put in charge of the Treasury transition. Thats the way to do it. I might have a point of view about what those ought to be based on certain inputs I was receiving directly from the Hill and we need to work more on this or that. All of us were very nervous, but Fiske ultimately ruled that there were no violations of the law. That has historically been, or at least in the modern era, a successful approach. For example, keeping its currency weak, not taking some of the steps to improve domestic demand such that Japan could become a stronger force for imports into Japan, ironically some of the same issues that are just as present today. Theres some story that he demanded a commission on entitlement reform as a price. Im not an economist, so maybe Im making a bad assumption here, but was there a discussion at this time about when you could start feeling some benefits from this pain that you were asking the President to accept at a fairly early stage in his Presidency? You didnt have to spend a lot of time with Lloyd Bentsen to know that he wasnt going to be shunted aside. That was in recognition of that. Do you recall at what point you felt that there was some momentum being reestablished? Is the existence of a war room something. Then Clinton, as I mentioned, this one big event in January of 92Clinton was great on his feet. He really enjoyed it, stayed up every night till four in the morning, and believe me, I know that because I was going to his room at three in the morning with these various wordings. The political process requires an outcome. What Im interested in is your perception of when the views that crystallized with economic policies were adopted in the first months of the administration. If we have another Iran-Contra therell have to be an independent counsel, thered have to be. It wasnt how he said it, it was what he said. The House voted first, and on the day of the House vote we didnt think we had the votes, or at least we thought the odds were too high that we would lose. Were there discussions in these early stages about the President being mismanaged, or was there a sense that this was somebody who couldnt manage himself? Could you see at that point a set of priorities emerging with the candidate? Do you have any recollections or observations about the President in that environment? We recommend you to check the complete So, when it came to answering Congressman Smiths questions, or Senator Jones questions, we were able to get those answers up there within two hours because we had all the people right in the room. Was there a group of people who were helping him on the policy side respective to economics? I think Clinton recognized that, by virtue of his being an outsider in Washingtonhe never served in Washingtonhe needed a link to the Congress, a really superb link, of the type that Bentsen afforded, especially since Clintons first priorities were economics.The Senate Finance Committee was going to be, more than any other single place, where the action was. So there was a lot of humor like that. Bentsen said, Youre going to ask for this, and youre going to get this, meaning that. But that group, top five, or six or seven, just masters of the game. He was shot eight times, mostly in the chest. I cant think of anything you didnt ask me, or anything I didnt say that I would have liked to have said, so with that exception. Again, I knew nothing about the substantive investigation. I only heardpeople are very superstitiousso I was told, It looks better or It looks like it may be all right. But there was the issue of the Clintons association with it and the fact that Madison Guaranty had made loans to the actual Whitewater Development Company, and the question of whether those loans had been made under pressure from the Clintons and in fact whether [James] McDougal, who ran it, had defrauded the depositors in cahoots with the Clintons. The Regency Hotel. I just remember that being contemporaneous with the real beginning of an organized effort here. Wed sit around in the Roosevelt Room, and you know how it works. Can you tell us a little bit about the second role? Things like, I cant remember what example we used, but Senator X voted for us because he was afraid hed have to have lunch with the President again, things like that. Well, there was, like most administrations, kind of a running shakeup. Its really a bad thing to say to a senior Cabinet officer, Well, your deputy isWe dont want to get off on that, but thats a very bad approach. The answer to that is yes. You referred earlier to Garys question that most of the decisions that Clinton made about his priorities came post-election, but the process. Now remember, Clinton had said he was going to cut the deficit in half. Thats why the current President may turn out to be lucky. If nobody else has any more questions about that, the other trade issue that you were greatly involved with that we touched on only once or twice has been Japan. I know the Congress and the Congress isnt going to buy it. So its also part of the Treasury tradition to do it that way. Im not joking. Definitely working on personnel. I can remember feeling very chastened because he talked about how many children we were helping and how many families we were helping and I chose to try to makejust in the spirit of celebration, a few jokes. President Bush was very vulnerable, and so Clinton was attacking on the economy and basically saying, if you remember, this rather famous line, he was going to focus like a laser on the economy. Yes, but typically you wouldnt resort to that with relative stability in the exchange markets, and we did have relative stability. Im not sure he would have known me really at all. Those things were at a peak in 94, just at the time healthcare was on the table. Does that mean that the first initiative of the new President, should he, she, be a Democrat be healthcare? Well, both is the answer. Then we had the meeting downstairs in the Governors mansion, in a study or a library, the same room actually wed been meeting in on Putting People First a few months earlier. What specifically arose was that the statute of limitations on any prosecution involving the failure of an S and L was about to expire. Well, health insurance reform was going to be very complicated, no matter how you cut it, because 85 percent of the people are already insured and only 15 percent are not, but welfare reform is something where huge numbers of people have opinions, even though they dont collect welfare. David Gergen was brought, which I think was probably the fall of 93 and Panetta replaced Mackthat was an awfully big event, of course. I respected him, but I never identified with him and I didnt see him being a successful Democratic nominee. I mean, maybe Reagan was to some degree briefly an anomaly, although he never had the reputation of being an anomaly, and so I wondered if the President, as Commander-In-Chief, also responsible for foreign policy, viewed this particular policy in that light too. You know, the only other thought I would express on this is, despite the drama of the moment and the stakes, everyone, as they say, puts on his pants one leg at a time. We believed our model would attract the most talented senior finance professionals to our firm. We had wonderful cooperation, at least in the Treasury. And it was just fuel on the already roaring fire of Whitewater. If youre Secretary of X, its pretty easy to become quite happily accustomed to the perquisites of that. So it wasnt invisible. If he predicted over the two years I worked for him, the fate of 25 pieces of legislation, he was right on all 25. One of the many stunning things about it is the fact that none of those Republicans paid a price of any kind for that. I think hes deeply appreciated. In the 12 years between Clinton and Carter, there had been famous acrimony between the Fed and the White House and the Treasury. You might call it something different. A fairly major effort went into that, which I was part of. [ALTMAN - comments on the message as to I didnt. I think its wrong from a policy point of view. He must have had enough of a political antenna to realize this was going to be a tough call in a Democratic constituency in Pennsylvania or Michigan. So that, despite the extraordinary achievement it really was, I think may be seen by history as a small achievement. First of all, the actual role of the Deputy Secretary as defined in the Treasury mission statement is to do what the Secretary of the Treasury asks him to. She figured in some bumper stickers also. Im just saying that Im a little too close to it because I recall so many of those battles, and I recall so many people feeling that, as you remember, the administration, in some form or other, lost three times, and each time came back with a more conservative version. There are many people in the administration who dont like the welfare reform that was ultimately signed, believed that Clinton ultimately turned centrist on the issue and anybody could have done that and once you did it as a Democratic President, you were going to have welfare reform. I cant cite the examples that I can cite about the National Economic Council, because I studied that for Clinton, but I doubt it. Welfare reform is a different issue, though. Might have been established by Washington. Does that resonate with you? You had been given a portfolio before that time? Georgetown was not a hotbed of political activism. I think the Japanese have ultimately realized its in their own interests to make a lot of these changes. Just not the right move to inform a Cabinet officer that his team is Mr. X, Miss Y and., its not the right move to inform a Cabinet officer that his team is Mr. X, Miss,. That first set of meetings know that he did that humor like.. 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